My best guess at which uranium atom will decay next is the uniform distribution over all the atoms. (Unless of course some of them are being bombarded or otherwise are asymmetric cases). If you focus your guess on a random one of the atoms, then you’ll do worse (in terms of Bayesian log-score) than my deterministic choice of maxentropy prior.
My best guess at which uranium atom will decay next is the uniform distribution over all the atoms. (Unless of course some of them are being bombarded or otherwise are asymmetric cases). If you focus your guess on a random one of the atoms, then you’ll do worse (in terms of Bayesian log-score) than my deterministic choice of maxentropy prior.