Biden and Harris have credibly committed to help Taiwan. Trump appears much more isolationist and less likely to intervene, which might make China more likely to invade.
I personally think it’s good for us to protect friendly countries like this, but isn’t China invading Taiwan good for AI risk, since destroying the main source of advanced chips would slow down timelines?
You also mention Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies, which seem bad for standard reasons, but not really relevant to AI existential risk (except to the extent that he might stay in power and continue making bad decisions 4+ years out).
Some reasons why the anti-democratic tendencies might matter:
This might be the guy in charge of deploying AGI and negotiating with other nations about it. I think we should be very concerned about the values of the person with the most power over this process. While purely caring about democracy could matter a lot for this, it’s also a signal of a general lack of values and lack of thinking about values, that seems concerning if he can make decisions about governing AGI with massive downstream effects.
I think his anti-democratic tendencies also display his intense power-hunger. It seems dangerous to have someone with this characteristic wielding power over the development of an incredibly powerful technology that could be used for all kinds of nefarious purposes.
There is also some small chance that Trump either attempts to seize power or manipulates the coming election for a supporter of his. I think this probably increases the chances of a far less competent and value-aligned person taking the helm in 2028.
In general, the public seems pretty bought-in on AI risk being a real issue and is interested in regulation. Having democratic instincts would perhaps push in the direction of good regulation (though the relationship here seems a little less clear).
As far as Taiwan I worry that Trump’s strategic ambiguity has a few too many dashes of ambiguity on this front which could lead to increased chance of crises which could escalate into something much worse. I don’t really have strong opinions about how Trump vs Kamala would fare on Taiwan though to be honest.
I personally think it’s good for us to protect friendly countries like this, but isn’t China invading Taiwan good for AI risk, since destroying the main source of advanced chips would slow down timelines?
You also mention Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies, which seem bad for standard reasons, but not really relevant to AI existential risk (except to the extent that he might stay in power and continue making bad decisions 4+ years out).
Some reasons why the anti-democratic tendencies might matter:
This might be the guy in charge of deploying AGI and negotiating with other nations about it. I think we should be very concerned about the values of the person with the most power over this process. While purely caring about democracy could matter a lot for this, it’s also a signal of a general lack of values and lack of thinking about values, that seems concerning if he can make decisions about governing AGI with massive downstream effects.
I think his anti-democratic tendencies also display his intense power-hunger. It seems dangerous to have someone with this characteristic wielding power over the development of an incredibly powerful technology that could be used for all kinds of nefarious purposes.
There is also some small chance that Trump either attempts to seize power or manipulates the coming election for a supporter of his. I think this probably increases the chances of a far less competent and value-aligned person taking the helm in 2028.
In general, the public seems pretty bought-in on AI risk being a real issue and is interested in regulation. Having democratic instincts would perhaps push in the direction of good regulation (though the relationship here seems a little less clear).
As far as Taiwan I worry that Trump’s strategic ambiguity has a few too many dashes of ambiguity on this front which could lead to increased chance of crises which could escalate into something much worse. I don’t really have strong opinions about how Trump vs Kamala would fare on Taiwan though to be honest.