Having said that, I think the question “how to reason well” should be seen as equivalent to “how to build an AGI”, which probably places me on the anit-Bayesian side.
There are some equivalences, but there are also some differences. We already know some uncomputable methods that are optimal between all computable inference, and they are perfectly Bayesian. But when it comes down to computable optimality, we are in high waters.
There are some equivalences, but there are also some differences. We already know some uncomputable methods that are optimal between all computable inference, and they are perfectly Bayesian.
But when it comes down to computable optimality, we are in high waters.