Crossover involves the project contributing more to itself than the outside world does. Note that this is not implied by even the quickest growth. A massive project might still mostly engage in trade with the rest of society, benefiting largely from their innovations, and contributing its own to wider progress. The picture above shows an AI project growing to rival the whole world in capability, at which point it might naturally contribute a lot to its own growth, relative to what the world contributes. However the world can also grow. If we are talking about a particular AI project, then other AI projects are a natural part of the rest of the world to be experiencing fast growth at the same time. And if fast-growing AI projects were improving every labor-based part of the economy, then outside growth should also increase. We will consider this sort of thing more in a future chapter about whether single projects take power, but I think it is worth asking whether reaching ‘crossover’ should be the default expectation.
Crossover involves the project contributing more to itself than the outside world does. Note that this is not implied by even the quickest growth. A massive project might still mostly engage in trade with the rest of society, benefiting largely from their innovations, and contributing its own to wider progress. The picture above shows an AI project growing to rival the whole world in capability, at which point it might naturally contribute a lot to its own growth, relative to what the world contributes. However the world can also grow. If we are talking about a particular AI project, then other AI projects are a natural part of the rest of the world to be experiencing fast growth at the same time. And if fast-growing AI projects were improving every labor-based part of the economy, then outside growth should also increase. We will consider this sort of thing more in a future chapter about whether single projects take power, but I think it is worth asking whether reaching ‘crossover’ should be the default expectation.