A step change in the rate of gain in average organizational efficiency is perhaps conceivable, but it is hard to see how even the most radical scenario of this kind could produce anything faster than a slow takeoff, since organizations operated by humans are confined to work on human timescales. (p67)
It seems a bit unclear how fast ‘human timescales’ are, especially since organizations usually consist of humans and other equipment. Are securities traded at human timescales? What are the speed limits for organizations of humans?
Lemma1: Superintelligence could be slow.
(imagine for example IQ test between Earth and Mars where delay between question and answer is about half hour. Or imagine big clever tortoise which could understand one sentence per hour but then could solve riemann hypothesis)
Lemma2: Human organization could rise quickly.
(It is imaginable that bilions join organization during several hours)
And there are time-scales of processes used or needed by intelligent systems that do not speed up easily. The prime example is insight into physical processes. Even if you can infer all there is to infer from an experiment—you still have to wait for the experiment to complete. Some physical experiments are inherently slow. Consider the simple example of observation of the astronomical cycles. You just can’t speed them up. Luckly humans have by now observed most of them. Granted, sometimes you can infer the whole cycle from only parts of the cycle. And then many experiments need physical construction of experimental apparatus which also cannot be sped up arbitrarily.
It seems a bit unclear how fast ‘human timescales’ are, especially since organizations usually consist of humans and other equipment. Are securities traded at human timescales? What are the speed limits for organizations of humans?
Lemma1: Superintelligence could be slow. (imagine for example IQ test between Earth and Mars where delay between question and answer is about half hour. Or imagine big clever tortoise which could understand one sentence per hour but then could solve riemann hypothesis)
Lemma2: Human organization could rise quickly. (It is imaginable that bilions join organization during several hours)
Next theorem is obvious :)
And there are time-scales of processes used or needed by intelligent systems that do not speed up easily. The prime example is insight into physical processes. Even if you can infer all there is to infer from an experiment—you still have to wait for the experiment to complete. Some physical experiments are inherently slow. Consider the simple example of observation of the astronomical cycles. You just can’t speed them up. Luckly humans have by now observed most of them. Granted, sometimes you can infer the whole cycle from only parts of the cycle. And then many experiments need physical construction of experimental apparatus which also cannot be sped up arbitrarily.