In other words, when you say “P(per-experiment event)” the “per-experiment” is really describing the P, not just the event.
My understanding is that P depends only on your knowledge and priors. If so, what is the knowledge that differs between per-experiment and per-awakening? Or am I wrong about that?
That doesn’t help. “Coin landed heads” can still be used to describe either a per-experiment or per-awakening situation:
My understanding is that P depends only on your knowledge and priors.
A per-experiment P means that P would approach the number you get when you divide the number of successes in a series of experiments by the number of experiments. Likewise for a per-awakening event. You could phrase this as “different knowledge” if you wish, since you know things about experiments that are not true of awakenings and vice versa.
That doesn’t help. “Coin landed heads” can still be used to describe either a per-experiment or per-awakening situation:
1) Given many experiments, if you selected one of those experiments at random, in what percentage of those experiments did the coin land heads?
2) Given many awakenings, if you selected one of those awakenings at random, in what percentage of those awakenings did the coin land heads?
My understanding is that P depends only on your knowledge and priors. If so, what is the knowledge that differs between per-experiment and per-awakening? Or am I wrong about that?
Ok, yes, agreed.
A per-experiment P means that P would approach the number you get when you divide the number of successes in a series of experiments by the number of experiments. Likewise for a per-awakening event. You could phrase this as “different knowledge” if you wish, since you know things about experiments that are not true of awakenings and vice versa.