you really could have been the first mover on a few of these new enterprises back in 2021 if you had brainstormed a bit. Describe one of them.
Fun!
Curated data services for forecasting.
High-trust paid newsletter/research service oriented around interesting markets. Maintain a publicly-verifiable scoreboard linked to market positions to demonstrate reliability.
Insurance markets—take an extreme position as a catastrophe hedge, use this to subsidize market making.
Social network—rationales and discussion for various markets. Content discovery algorithms could include historic accuracy so truth propagates more easily.
Infrastructure to annotate opinion pieces with concrete predictions, link to market positions.
Fun!
Curated data services for forecasting.
High-trust paid newsletter/research service oriented around interesting markets. Maintain a publicly-verifiable scoreboard linked to market positions to demonstrate reliability.
Insurance markets—take an extreme position as a catastrophe hedge, use this to subsidize market making.
Social network—rationales and discussion for various markets. Content discovery algorithms could include historic accuracy so truth propagates more easily.
Infrastructure to annotate opinion pieces with concrete predictions, link to market positions.
… [will update if more occur to me]