More generally, I haven’t yet seen a prediction market where the “easy money” looks more attractive on a risk-and-work-adjusted basis than working on HypoFuzz. Perhaps others have similar opportunity costs?
With the capital I have on hand as a PhD student, there’s just no way that running something like Vitalik’s pipeline to make money on prediction markets will have a higher excess return-on-hours-worked over holding ETH than my next-best option (which I currently think is a business I’m starting).
If I was starting with a larger capital pool, or equivalently a lower hourly rate, I can see how it would be attractive though.
I don’t use Polymarket because, relative to a material investment,
The base rate of crypto institutions losing everything through hacks, fraud, etc. is way too high
On a related note, “USDC” / “Tether” does not inspire confidence
Conversely, volatility—“it would have been a shame if I earned $50,000 betting against Trump but simultaneously lost $500,000 missing out on ETH price changes”
More generally, I haven’t yet seen a prediction market where the “easy money” looks more attractive on a risk-and-work-adjusted basis than working on HypoFuzz. Perhaps others have similar opportunity costs?
USDC is a very different thing than tether.
Do you have most of your net worth tied up in Eth, or something other than USD at any rate? If not I don’t see how the volatility point could apply.
With the capital I have on hand as a PhD student, there’s just no way that running something like Vitalik’s pipeline to make money on prediction markets will have a higher excess return-on-hours-worked over holding ETH than my next-best option (which I currently think is a business I’m starting).
If I was starting with a larger capital pool, or equivalently a lower hourly rate, I can see how it would be attractive though.