We can model success as a combination of doing useful things and avoiding making mistakes. As a particular example, we can model intellectual success as a combination of coming up with good ideas and avoiding bad ideas. I claim that rationality helps us avoid mistakes and bad ideas, but doesn’t help much in generating good ideas and useful work.
I think this might be sort of right, but note that since plans are hierarchical, rationality can help you avoid mistakes (e.g. failing to spend 5 minutes thinking about good ways to do something important, or assuming that your first impression of a field is right) that would have prevented you from generating good ideas.
I agree with this. I think the EA example I mentioned fits this pattern fairly well—the more rational you are, the more likely you are to consider what careers and cause areas actually lead to the outcomes you care about, and go into one of those. But then you need the different skill of actually being good at it.
I think this might be sort of right, but note that since plans are hierarchical, rationality can help you avoid mistakes (e.g. failing to spend 5 minutes thinking about good ways to do something important, or assuming that your first impression of a field is right) that would have prevented you from generating good ideas.
I agree with this. I think the EA example I mentioned fits this pattern fairly well—the more rational you are, the more likely you are to consider what careers and cause areas actually lead to the outcomes you care about, and go into one of those. But then you need the different skill of actually being good at it.