* I think that the Trump concedes if he loses market is now unconditional, because by Smarkets’ standards (projected electoral votes from major news networks) Biden has won.
** Kind of, because some TRUMP shares expired at 1 TRUMFEB share - $0.10, rather than $0 as expected, and some TRUMP shares haven’t expired yet, because TRUMP holders asked. So it’s possible that the value of a TRUMPFEB share might also include the value of a hypothetical TRUMPMAR share, or that TRUMPFEB trades will be nullified at some point, or some other retrospective rule change on FTX’s part.
He won because the Election was Rigged. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!
While he has retracted this, it met Smarkets’ standards, so I’m £22.34 richer.
Smarkets is currently selling shares in Trump conceding if he loses at 57.14%. The Good Judgement Project’s superforecasters predict that any major presidential candidate will concede with probability 88%. I assign <30% probability to Biden conceding* (scenarios where Biden concedes are probably overwhelmingly ones where court cases/recounts mean states were called wrong, which Betfair assigns ~10% probability to, and FTX kind of** assigns 15% probability to, and even these seem high), so I think it’s a good bet to take.
* I think that the Trump concedes if he loses market is now unconditional, because by Smarkets’ standards (projected electoral votes from major news networks) Biden has won.
** Kind of, because some TRUMP shares expired at 1 TRUMFEB share - $0.10, rather than $0 as expected, and some TRUMP shares haven’t expired yet, because TRUMP holders asked. So it’s possible that the value of a TRUMPFEB share might also include the value of a hypothetical TRUMPMAR share, or that TRUMPFEB trades will be nullified at some point, or some other retrospective rule change on FTX’s part.
UPDATE 2020-11-16: Trump… kind of conceded? Emphasis mine:
While he has retracted this, it met Smarkets’ standards, so I’m £22.34 richer.