Worth noting that studying the effect of damage to GPS systems was not considered in the Open Philanthropy report (beyond a mention that it is beyond the scope of the report), but GPS going down could be very bad indeed, given power grids’ and supply chains’ near-total dependence on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/opinion/gps-vulnerable-alternatives-navigation-critical-infrastructure.html . On the plus side, an emergency backup system for GPS has already been mandated by U.S. law, but it sounds from the NYT article like it’s been 3 years and the government and business interests still can’t agree on who’s going to pay for it. Might be a good topic for some political advocacy.
David Denkenberger also points to this paper reporting evidence of two extremely large solar storm events in AD 774 and 993, the larger being “five times stronger than any instrumentally recorded solar event”: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms9611. On that basis he predicts “~10% chance of loss of industrial civilisation this century.”
Paper is long, but I find the description of ancient humans across the world independently doing science (observing and recording observations about the natural world) to be incredibly inspiring, especially because I am fortunate enough to live in an age when this phenomenon can be understood.
The talk from the author on youtube was worth the time for me, but maybe not for you unless you really like the paper.
Worth noting that studying the effect of damage to GPS systems was not considered in the Open Philanthropy report (beyond a mention that it is beyond the scope of the report), but GPS going down could be very bad indeed, given power grids’ and supply chains’ near-total dependence on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/opinion/gps-vulnerable-alternatives-navigation-critical-infrastructure.html . On the plus side, an emergency backup system for GPS has already been mandated by U.S. law, but it sounds from the NYT article like it’s been 3 years and the government and business interests still can’t agree on who’s going to pay for it. Might be a good topic for some political advocacy.
David Denkenberger also points to this paper reporting evidence of two extremely large solar storm events in AD 774 and 993, the larger being “five times stronger than any instrumentally recorded solar event”: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms9611. On that basis he predicts “~10% chance of loss of industrial civilisation this century.”
When you see the sephirot in the sky....
http://www.theplasmaverse.com/pdfs/Characteristics-for-the-Occurrence-of-a-HighCurrent-ZPinch-Aurora-as-Recorded-in-Antiquity-squatter-squatting-man-Anthony-Peratt.pdf
Paper is long, but I find the description of ancient humans across the world independently doing science (observing and recording observations about the natural world) to be incredibly inspiring, especially because I am fortunate enough to live in an age when this phenomenon can be understood.
The talk from the author on youtube was worth the time for me, but maybe not for you unless you really like the paper.
Those are interesting points. I haven’t looked into this topic myself very much, but they could make it worth reevaluating this.