The one useful purpose for discussion of “meanings” is to draw attention to distinctions between different usages that may get overlooked. The “epistemic” vs “instrumental” is one such distinction in this case.
I suggest there is a third useful sense, which sort of links epistemic rationality and instrumental rationality.
The example in the sequence post takes consistent Bayesian probability with Occam priors as an example of rational modelling of the world. But in what sense is it rational to believe that the world is an ordered place with rules that apply irrespective of location and time, that Occam’s razor is the right prior, and so on? The choice of such a method cannot be justified by appeals to evidence that assume the validity of the method.
The only root justification that makes sense to me is by a game-theory type argument. If the world does continue to behave the way I broadly expect it to, that has huge implications—I can continue to behave in broadly the same way as I have been behaving. If the universe from this moment on is going to behave according to entirely different rules, I have no basis for as much as putting one foot in front of another. So assuming that a model which describes the past well will also have validity in future has great instrumental advantages. So it is ‘rational’ to do so, even though it can’t be justified by “scientific” reasoning.
It can be fairly pointed out that the reasoning here is essentially that of Pascal’s Wager. However, there is nothing in that particular argument which justifies belief in any one version of “God” rather than another, and if somebody wants to use the word “God” exclusively for the fact that the universe makes sense, I see no reason to object!
The one useful purpose for discussion of “meanings” is to draw attention to distinctions between different usages that may get overlooked. The “epistemic” vs “instrumental” is one such distinction in this case.
I suggest there is a third useful sense, which sort of links epistemic rationality and instrumental rationality.
The example in the sequence post takes consistent Bayesian probability with Occam priors as an example of rational modelling of the world. But in what sense is it rational to believe that the world is an ordered place with rules that apply irrespective of location and time, that Occam’s razor is the right prior, and so on? The choice of such a method cannot be justified by appeals to evidence that assume the validity of the method.
The only root justification that makes sense to me is by a game-theory type argument. If the world does continue to behave the way I broadly expect it to, that has huge implications—I can continue to behave in broadly the same way as I have been behaving. If the universe from this moment on is going to behave according to entirely different rules, I have no basis for as much as putting one foot in front of another. So assuming that a model which describes the past well will also have validity in future has great instrumental advantages. So it is ‘rational’ to do so, even though it can’t be justified by “scientific” reasoning.
It can be fairly pointed out that the reasoning here is essentially that of Pascal’s Wager. However, there is nothing in that particular argument which justifies belief in any one version of “God” rather than another, and if somebody wants to use the word “God” exclusively for the fact that the universe makes sense, I see no reason to object!