Interestingly, my own estimation of a 1 in 20 chance puts me right about in the middle of your estimates. Given that I based my estimate primarily to be the median of the estimates I’d gathered at the time I made it, I’m still a little surprised that it’s still that with your newer set of estimates.
Interestingly, my own estimation of a 1 in 20 chance puts me right about in the middle of your estimates. Given that I based my estimate primarily to be the median of the estimates I’d gathered at the time I made it, I’m still a little surprised that it’s still that with your newer set of estimates.