Wondering why this has so many disagreement votes. Perhaps people don’t like to see the serious topic of “how much time do we have left”, alongside evidence that there’s a population of AI entrepreneurs who are so far removed from consensus reality, that they now think they’re living in a simulation.
(edit: The disagreement for @JenniferRM’s comment was at something like −7. Two days later, it’s at −2)
For most of my comments, I’d almost be offended if I didn’t say something surprising enough to get a “high interestingness, low agreement” voting response. Excluding speech acts, why even say things if your interlocutor or full audience can predict what you’ll say?
And I usually don’t offer full clean proofs in direct word. Anyone still pondering the text at the end, properly, shouldn’t “vote to agree”, right? So from my perspective… its fine and sorta even working as intended <3
However, also, this is currently the top-voted response to me, and if William_S himself reads it I hope he answers here, if not with text then (hopefully? even better?) with a link to a response elsewhere?
((EDIT: Re-reading everything above his, point, I notice that I totally left out the “basic take” that might go roughly like “Kurzweil, Altman, and Zuckerberg are right about compute hardware (not software or philosophy) being central, and there’s a compute bottleneck rather than a compute overhang, so the speed of history will KEEP being about datacenter budgets and chip designs, and those happen on 6-to-18-month OODA loops that could actually fluctuate based on economic decisions, and therefore its maybe 2026, or 2028, or 2030, or even 2032 before things pop, depending on how and when billionaires and governments decide to spend money”.))
Pulling honest posteriors from people who’ve “seen things we wouldn’t believe” gives excellent material for trying to perform aumancy… work backwards from their posteriors to possible observations, and then forwards again, toward what might actually be true :-)
It could just be because it reaches a strong conclusion on anecdotal/clustered evidence (e.g. it might say more about her friend group than anything else). Along with claims to being better calibrated for weak reasons—which could be true, but seems not very epistemically humble.
Full disclosure I downvoted karma, because I don’t think it should be top reply, but I did not agree or disagree.
But Jen seems cool, I like weird takes, and downvotes are not a big deal—just a part of a healthy contentious discussion.
Wondering why this has so many disagreement votes. Perhaps people don’t like to see the serious topic of “how much time do we have left”, alongside evidence that there’s a population of AI entrepreneurs who are so far removed from consensus reality, that they now think they’re living in a simulation.
(edit: The disagreement for @JenniferRM’s comment was at something like −7. Two days later, it’s at −2)
For most of my comments, I’d almost be offended if I didn’t say something surprising enough to get a “high interestingness, low agreement” voting response. Excluding speech acts, why even say things if your interlocutor or full audience can predict what you’ll say?
And I usually don’t offer full clean proofs in direct word. Anyone still pondering the text at the end, properly, shouldn’t “vote to agree”, right? So from my perspective… its fine and sorta even working as intended <3
However, also, this is currently the top-voted response to me, and if William_S himself reads it I hope he answers here, if not with text then (hopefully? even better?) with a link to a response elsewhere?
((EDIT: Re-reading everything above his, point, I notice that I totally left out the “basic take” that might go roughly like “Kurzweil, Altman, and Zuckerberg are right about compute hardware (not software or philosophy) being central, and there’s a compute bottleneck rather than a compute overhang, so the speed of history will KEEP being about datacenter budgets and chip designs, and those happen on 6-to-18-month OODA loops that could actually fluctuate based on economic decisions, and therefore its maybe 2026, or 2028, or 2030, or even 2032 before things pop, depending on how and when billionaires and governments decide to spend money”.))
Pulling honest posteriors from people who’ve “seen things we wouldn’t believe” gives excellent material for trying to perform aumancy… work backwards from their posteriors to possible observations, and then forwards again, toward what might actually be true :-)
It could just be because it reaches a strong conclusion on anecdotal/clustered evidence (e.g. it might say more about her friend group than anything else). Along with claims to being better calibrated for weak reasons—which could be true, but seems not very epistemically humble.
Full disclosure I downvoted karma, because I don’t think it should be top reply, but I did not agree or disagree.
But Jen seems cool, I like weird takes, and downvotes are not a big deal—just a part of a healthy contentious discussion.