Doesn’t this only work if the logic of the situation is transparent? Or maybe I’m misunderstanding what you mean by the logic of the situation. Are you trying to say “Keep in mind the counterfactual situations in which you might make various decisions and then determine which situation you are in?”
Or maybe “determine your policy in all statistically likely scenarios then determine which scenario you are in”
It certainly only works to the extent that the logic of the situation is transparent. What I’m suggesting is that, in practice, it seems like humans can gain a lot by asking themselves what sort of situation they are in and what sort of response would be best to that class of situations (rather than trying to pin down the exact situation they’re in and respond in the way that is best for that). This is somewhat odd. It may feel a bit like throwing away information. However, people tend to over-fit the details of a situation (overestimating the value they can get by attending to those details). And, deciding what policies you’d like to implement in general rather than special-casing helps you coordinate with yourself in important ways. (And with others.)
Doesn’t this only work if the logic of the situation is transparent? Or maybe I’m misunderstanding what you mean by the logic of the situation. Are you trying to say “Keep in mind the counterfactual situations in which you might make various decisions and then determine which situation you are in?”
Or maybe “determine your policy in all statistically likely scenarios then determine which scenario you are in”
It certainly only works to the extent that the logic of the situation is transparent. What I’m suggesting is that, in practice, it seems like humans can gain a lot by asking themselves what sort of situation they are in and what sort of response would be best to that class of situations (rather than trying to pin down the exact situation they’re in and respond in the way that is best for that). This is somewhat odd. It may feel a bit like throwing away information. However, people tend to over-fit the details of a situation (overestimating the value they can get by attending to those details). And, deciding what policies you’d like to implement in general rather than special-casing helps you coordinate with yourself in important ways. (And with others.)