Confirmation bias is an enormous factor in conspiracy theories. If you want accurate beliefs, including accurate uncertainties about your beliefs, you want to do some serious research on confirmation bias and .motivated reasoning. After studying cognitive biases for my job for four years, I believe those two carry the bulk of the practical effect.
Between the lines, I’m guessing your family is accusing you of sounding like a conspiracy theorist because you’re overconfident of your certainty in your new beliefs, based on confirmation bias in your research. I approximately share each of the beliefs you mention, after a modest amount of research on each. But I’m much less certain than you seem to be about exactly where the truth on each subject lies.
Confirmation bias is an enormous factor in conspiracy theories. If you want accurate beliefs, including accurate uncertainties about your beliefs, you want to do some serious research on confirmation bias and .motivated reasoning. After studying cognitive biases for my job for four years, I believe those two carry the bulk of the practical effect.
Between the lines, I’m guessing your family is accusing you of sounding like a conspiracy theorist because you’re overconfident of your certainty in your new beliefs, based on confirmation bias in your research. I approximately share each of the beliefs you mention, after a modest amount of research on each. But I’m much less certain than you seem to be about exactly where the truth on each subject lies.