I’m a little late to this game, but I spent over an hour, maybe two, comparing the information from the two websites. I had known nothing previously about the case.
My answers:
0.05
0.05
0.95
0.65
So, I feel pretty vindicated. This was a great complement to Kaj Sotala’s post on Bayesianism. With his post, as I was considering this case, I assigned probabilities to the existence of an orgy gone wrong as against one rapist-murderer. There is strong Bayesian evidence for Guédé′s guilt, but it’s exceedingly weak for Sollecito and Knox. This has really helped the idea of Bayesianism “click” for me.
komponisto, your reasoning is wonderfully thorough and sound. I can corroborate that I deliberately found myself “shutting the voice out” concerning the activity with the mop. You have a great explanation, overall. These two posts of yours are in the running for my all-time favorites.
I’m a little late to this game, but I spent over an hour, maybe two, comparing the information from the two websites. I had known nothing previously about the case.
My answers:
0.05
0.05
0.95
0.65
So, I feel pretty vindicated. This was a great complement to Kaj Sotala’s post on Bayesianism. With his post, as I was considering this case, I assigned probabilities to the existence of an orgy gone wrong as against one rapist-murderer. There is strong Bayesian evidence for Guédé′s guilt, but it’s exceedingly weak for Sollecito and Knox. This has really helped the idea of Bayesianism “click” for me.
komponisto, your reasoning is wonderfully thorough and sound. I can corroborate that I deliberately found myself “shutting the voice out” concerning the activity with the mop. You have a great explanation, overall. These two posts of yours are in the running for my all-time favorites.