I think your analysis is excellent, and is an admirable example of “cognitive debugging”. This part in particular is worth dwelling on:
Everything else was unreliable, and I did not treat it as such even though in my mind I even thought that it was unreliable.
That’s what upset me the most. I made a special note of it, in order to give it a very low weighting, yet it was still a major factor in my assessment. It had to be, because the prosecution’s case hinged on it.
I think next time I notice something like that I will have to assign it a specific weight as soon as I decide that it should be given a low weight. Instead I just labeled it as “weak” in my head and moved on.
So when I think “that’s likely true” I should stop and consider what the actual number is that I would assign to it. This would help considering in spotting cases where I assign more than 100% total probability to an outcome. If I am thinking it is 70% likely that they are guilty and 60% likely that they aren’t, there is an obvious problem. If I don’t assign any numbers until I’m finished looking at the problem then I’ll never spot this error, as I’ll simply calculate not-guilty likelihood from the guilty likelihood.
That’s what upset me the most. I made a special note of it, in order to give it a very low weighting, yet it was still a major factor in my assessment. It had to be, because the prosecution’s case hinged on it.
I think next time I notice something like that I will have to assign it a specific weight as soon as I decide that it should be given a low weight. Instead I just labeled it as “weak” in my head and moved on.
So when I think “that’s likely true” I should stop and consider what the actual number is that I would assign to it. This would help considering in spotting cases where I assign more than 100% total probability to an outcome. If I am thinking it is 70% likely that they are guilty and 60% likely that they aren’t, there is an obvious problem. If I don’t assign any numbers until I’m finished looking at the problem then I’ll never spot this error, as I’ll simply calculate not-guilty likelihood from the guilty likelihood.
Much to think about and much to learn still.