Actually I did in a previous post. As noted in that post, someone involved in the murder would have had a strong motive and the best means and opportunity to engage in staging/alteration if he was a flatmate of the victim.
Someone with little or no connection to the victim would not have had much incentive to engage in staging/alteration. And someone who did not live in the flat would have had far less confidence in returning to the crime scene or staying at the crime scene for an extended period of time. Why? Because such a person would naturally worry that another resident of the flat would already be there when he or she returned. Or would return while her or she was there.
So if the crime scene really was altered/staged, the natural suspect is a resident of the flat (and anyone acting in concert with him or her).
Okay. I agree that evidence of very time-consuming alterations is evidence that the alterer didn’t fear interruption. Now, what was the evidence that the bra was removed “some hours” after the murder?
More pertinent to the point: Was the delayed removal of the bra noticed before Knox and Sollecito were suspects? That is, was it initial evidence, as captcorajus requested?
As for the ransacking, I expect a fake ransacker to be about as likely to fake-steal things as a real ransacker would be to really steal things. Therefore, the failure of the ransacker to steal is not much evidence either way regarding the genuineness of the ransacking.
Now, what was the evidence that the bra was removed ‘some hours’ after the
murder?
It’s on the anti-Knox web site linked to from the “you be the jury” post. If you really want, I will try to dig up a link for it.
That is, was it initial evidence, as captcorajus requested?
I don’t know, but in most of my posts I’ve been using the word “initial” to mean evidence which could be developed from the crime scene without having any particular suspect in mind. “initial” in a logical sense rather than a chronological sense.
If you read back through captcorajus’ comments, you will see why that makes sense. But I do agree it’s a sloppy use of the word “initial” I suppose it would be better to call it “a priori” evidence.
I expect a fake ransacker to be about as likely to fake-steal things as a real >ransacker would be to really steal things.
I wouldn’t. For one thing, if you fake-steal things, you have to take time and energy to dispose of them somewhere and you have to worry that your fingerprints or DNA will be on them. For another, if you have just killed someone and you have never given a lot of thought to staging a crime, there’s a good chance it wouldn’t occur to you that you actually need to fake-steal stuff to make it look good.
It’s on the anti-Knox web site linked to from the “you be the jury” post. If you really want, I will try to dig up a link for it.
I was able to find claims that the bra was removed and the body moved “some time” after her death, but not “some hours”. Any murderer would have been with the body for some time after the death. [ETA: I also couldn’t find what evidence established that the bra had been removed even “some time” after death.]
But, if the murderer stayed for multiple hours, I would consider that to be evidence that the murderer had some confidence that he wouldn’t get caught by the residents. Then, I concede, it becomes necessary to consider how likely different people were to have had that confidence.
I was able to find claims that the bra was removed and the body moved “some >time” after her death, but not ‘some hours’ Any murderer would have been with the body for some time after the death.
You may be right about “some time” versus “some hours.” However, there was also the claim that the victim took quite a while (an hour?) to actually die from her wounds. So it does not seem the murderer would need to have been with the body for some time after the death.
The actual evidence, as I recall, was (1) that there was in impression in the dried pool of blood under the victim from her bra; and (2) there were minimal blood stains on the victim’s breasts compared to other parts of her upper body.
You may be right about “some time” versus “some hours.” However, there was also the claim that the victim took quite a while (an hour?) to actually die from her wounds. So it does not seem the murderer would need to have been with the body for some time after the death.
I would expect any murderer to stay long enough to ensure that the victim was dead. If the victim was alive during the “some time” needed to remove her bra, then that event doesn’t add significant probability to the guilt of Knox and Sollecito. Any murderer would want to make sure that the victim didn’t live long enough to identify him.
I would expect any murderer to stay long enough to ensure that the victim was >dead.
I wouldn’t necessarily expect that. The murderer might very well just panic and run while the victim lay dying. Indeed, one witness apparently reported hearing a scream followed shortly by running footsteps.
In any event, I would guess that the normal way to make sure somebody is dead is to keep stabbing them until they stop moving. Apparently the victim in this case stopped moving for a while (“quite some time” was the phrased used on the anti-Knox site) before she was moved and her bra cut off.
It’s hard for me to believe that a random killer would watch the victim die; watch her motionless for a long enough for her blood to dry significantly, and only then move her and cut off her bra. All the while wondering if somebone else is about to enter the apartment and discover him.
In order for you to believe that the bra must have been removed more than minutes after the stabbings, you must believe one of:
1) the bra was removed in a way that rubbed the material all around her breasts, not cut or unclasped and lifted straight off.
or
2) blood was still dripping significantly from a wound or large smear uphill of the breasts relative to the body’s orientation
Evidence I’d accept for 1: smudging suggestive of sloppy bra removal, but with less blood smear than you’d expect from unclotted/dried blood. But I’d need a wide range of lab experiments producing similar marks by smearing different-aged blood in order to know the timeframe.
Evidence I’d accept for 2: pattern of blood flows around the breast may suggest one or more orientations of the body before total drying.
But even if the bra was removed hours later: who says K/S did it, and who says that raises the likelihood of their also stabbing the victim above 1%? I would be interested in what the killer was doing hanging around for hours, if it turns out he did, but that’s not impossible either.
In terms of probabilities, if the crime scene was altered, there’s a pretty good chance it was done by someone who lived in the apartment. Why? Because a resident of the apartment would have an incentive to do so and would have a much better opportunity.
their also stabbing the victim above 1%?
To me, the question is not whether Knox stabbed the victim so much as whether Knox was involved in the murder.
If I own or rent a residence, and one of the residents is killed there, I agree that I expect some suspicion to fall on me.
I don’t agree that I’m therefore very likely to attempt to cover up the crime. In fact, it would be irrational, unless I think the authorities are extremely likely to railroad me out of laziness.
I’d say, if the crime scene was covered up in any way, I’d suspect the perpetrator first.
I read a little more about the case; apparently it was mostly throat-slashing. On the whole, I think it’s crazy to suspect that Knox did the slashing, ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange” (under extreme duress).
There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange”
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.
Actually I did in a previous post. As noted in that post, someone involved in the murder would have had a strong motive and the best means and opportunity to engage in staging/alteration if he was a flatmate of the victim.
Someone with little or no connection to the victim would not have had much incentive to engage in staging/alteration. And someone who did not live in the flat would have had far less confidence in returning to the crime scene or staying at the crime scene for an extended period of time. Why? Because such a person would naturally worry that another resident of the flat would already be there when he or she returned. Or would return while her or she was there.
So if the crime scene really was altered/staged, the natural suspect is a resident of the flat (and anyone acting in concert with him or her).
Okay. I agree that evidence of very time-consuming alterations is evidence that the alterer didn’t fear interruption. Now, what was the evidence that the bra was removed “some hours” after the murder?
More pertinent to the point: Was the delayed removal of the bra noticed before Knox and Sollecito were suspects? That is, was it initial evidence, as captcorajus requested?
As for the ransacking, I expect a fake ransacker to be about as likely to fake-steal things as a real ransacker would be to really steal things. Therefore, the failure of the ransacker to steal is not much evidence either way regarding the genuineness of the ransacking.
It’s on the anti-Knox web site linked to from the “you be the jury” post. If you really want, I will try to dig up a link for it.
I don’t know, but in most of my posts I’ve been using the word “initial” to mean evidence which could be developed from the crime scene without having any particular suspect in mind. “initial” in a logical sense rather than a chronological sense.
If you read back through captcorajus’ comments, you will see why that makes sense. But I do agree it’s a sloppy use of the word “initial” I suppose it would be better to call it “a priori” evidence.
I wouldn’t. For one thing, if you fake-steal things, you have to take time and energy to dispose of them somewhere and you have to worry that your fingerprints or DNA will be on them. For another, if you have just killed someone and you have never given a lot of thought to staging a crime, there’s a good chance it wouldn’t occur to you that you actually need to fake-steal stuff to make it look good.
I was able to find claims that the bra was removed and the body moved “some time” after her death, but not “some hours”. Any murderer would have been with the body for some time after the death. [ETA: I also couldn’t find what evidence established that the bra had been removed even “some time” after death.]
But, if the murderer stayed for multiple hours, I would consider that to be evidence that the murderer had some confidence that he wouldn’t get caught by the residents. Then, I concede, it becomes necessary to consider how likely different people were to have had that confidence.
You may be right about “some time” versus “some hours.” However, there was also the claim that the victim took quite a while (an hour?) to actually die from her wounds. So it does not seem the murderer would need to have been with the body for some time after the death.
The actual evidence, as I recall, was (1) that there was in impression in the dried pool of blood under the victim from her bra; and (2) there were minimal blood stains on the victim’s breasts compared to other parts of her upper body.
I would expect any murderer to stay long enough to ensure that the victim was dead. If the victim was alive during the “some time” needed to remove her bra, then that event doesn’t add significant probability to the guilt of Knox and Sollecito. Any murderer would want to make sure that the victim didn’t live long enough to identify him.
I wouldn’t necessarily expect that. The murderer might very well just panic and run while the victim lay dying. Indeed, one witness apparently reported hearing a scream followed shortly by running footsteps.
In any event, I would guess that the normal way to make sure somebody is dead is to keep stabbing them until they stop moving. Apparently the victim in this case stopped moving for a while (“quite some time” was the phrased used on the anti-Knox site) before she was moved and her bra cut off.
It’s hard for me to believe that a random killer would watch the victim die; watch her motionless for a long enough for her blood to dry significantly, and only then move her and cut off her bra. All the while wondering if somebone else is about to enter the apartment and discover him.
In order for you to believe that the bra must have been removed more than minutes after the stabbings, you must believe one of:
1) the bra was removed in a way that rubbed the material all around her breasts, not cut or unclasped and lifted straight off.
or
2) blood was still dripping significantly from a wound or large smear uphill of the breasts relative to the body’s orientation
Evidence I’d accept for 1: smudging suggestive of sloppy bra removal, but with less blood smear than you’d expect from unclotted/dried blood. But I’d need a wide range of lab experiments producing similar marks by smearing different-aged blood in order to know the timeframe.
Evidence I’d accept for 2: pattern of blood flows around the breast may suggest one or more orientations of the body before total drying.
But even if the bra was removed hours later: who says K/S did it, and who says that raises the likelihood of their also stabbing the victim above 1%? I would be interested in what the killer was doing hanging around for hours, if it turns out he did, but that’s not impossible either.
In terms of probabilities, if the crime scene was altered, there’s a pretty good chance it was done by someone who lived in the apartment. Why? Because a resident of the apartment would have an incentive to do so and would have a much better opportunity.
To me, the question is not whether Knox stabbed the victim so much as whether Knox was involved in the murder.
If I own or rent a residence, and one of the residents is killed there, I agree that I expect some suspicion to fall on me.
I don’t agree that I’m therefore very likely to attempt to cover up the crime. In fact, it would be irrational, unless I think the authorities are extremely likely to railroad me out of laziness.
I’d say, if the crime scene was covered up in any way, I’d suspect the perpetrator first.
I read a little more about the case; apparently it was mostly throat-slashing. On the whole, I think it’s crazy to suspect that Knox did the slashing, ultimately mostly on the basis of “her behavior was strange” (under extreme duress).
There’s a difference between (1) the probability that a resident will attempt to alter or stage the crime scene; and (2) the probability, given that the crime scene was altered or staged, a resident is responsible.
Respectfully, I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the evidence against Knox.
True. There’s some physical evidence that can be interpreted as implicating her. I just meant that her prosecution was ultimately caused by a feeling of “her behavior is strange”.
There was a side-discussion in another thread about how it is quite likely Amanda Knox is a sociopath and that could have made the prosecution think she was guilty and explains some of her strange behavior. But, sociopaths are 5-10% of the population and being a sociopath only marginally increases the probability of committing murder.
If you are saying that the police became suspicious of her at the very beginning because her behavior seemed strange, then you may be right. How should this affect our assessment of the probility she is guilty? I would say it depends on exactly what strange behavior you are talking about.