As I see it, P(AS says some people would be alienated | SI has a terrible secret strategy) is about equal to P(AS says some people would be alienated | SI has an un-terrible secret strategy), so the likelihood ratio is about one...
If I was to accept your estimation then the associated utility of P(people alienated | terrible strategy) and P(people alienated | un-terrible strategy) would force you to act according to the first possibility.
I don’t follow. Do you mean that the potential disutility of SI having a terrible strategy is so much bigger than the potential utility of SI having an un-terrible strategy that, given equal likelihoods, I should act against SI? If so, I disagree.
If I was to accept your estimation then the associated utility of P(people alienated | terrible strategy) and P(people alienated | un-terrible strategy) would force you to act according to the first possibility.
I don’t follow. Do you mean that the potential disutility of SI having a terrible strategy is so much bigger than the potential utility of SI having an un-terrible strategy that, given equal likelihoods, I should act against SI? If so, I disagree.