Who has educational credentials and/or accomplishments relevant to future AGI designs or long-term tech forecasting?
There’s the more relevant accomplishments, there are less relevant accomplishments, and lacks of accomplishment.
Also, in general, I’ll just remind everyone reading this that I don’t think these meta-level debates about proper social epistemology are as productive as object-level debates about strategically relevant facts
I agree that a discussion of strategically relevant facts would be much more productive. I don’t see facts here. I see many speculations. I see a lot of making things up to fit the conclusion.
If I were to tell you that I can, for example, win a very high stakes programming contest (with a difficult, open problem that has many potential solutions that can be ranked in terms of quality), the discussion of my approach to the contest problem between you and me would be almost useless for your or my prediction of victory (provided that basic standards of competence are met), irrespective of whenever my idea is good. Prior track record, on the other hand, would be a good predictor. This is how it is for a very well defined problem. It is not going to be better for a less well understood problem.
There’s the more relevant accomplishments, there are less relevant accomplishments, and lacks of accomplishment.
I agree that a discussion of strategically relevant facts would be much more productive. I don’t see facts here. I see many speculations. I see a lot of making things up to fit the conclusion.
If I were to tell you that I can, for example, win a very high stakes programming contest (with a difficult, open problem that has many potential solutions that can be ranked in terms of quality), the discussion of my approach to the contest problem between you and me would be almost useless for your or my prediction of victory (provided that basic standards of competence are met), irrespective of whenever my idea is good. Prior track record, on the other hand, would be a good predictor. This is how it is for a very well defined problem. It is not going to be better for a less well understood problem.