In this specific case, I feel like I think the problem would basically be solved if you would just say “I am not going to award this bounty if you unilaterally release a gene drive, without also writing a post that convinces me that the effects of doing so in a rushed way were worth the costs”. Basically just inverting the burden of proof in that one case.
I agree about inverting the burden of proof in that case. I’d prefer to operationalize “unilaterally” more. Here’s an alternative:
“I am not going to award this bounty if other people with a strong understanding of the science involved point out straightforward flaws that make the project appear catastrophically net negative, or if a post on LessWrong about the project leads users to point out straightforward reasons why the project is catastrophically net negative, or if I think you made no attempt to get such people to actually check and then change their minds (or engage with their arguments for 100+ hours) before going ahead.”
In this specific case, I feel like I think the problem would basically be solved if you would just say “I am not going to award this bounty if you unilaterally release a gene drive, without also writing a post that convinces me that the effects of doing so in a rushed way were worth the costs”. Basically just inverting the burden of proof in that one case.
Done then.
I’ll think about this more and formalize it a bit before I actually create the nonprofit’s pledge.
I agree about inverting the burden of proof in that case. I’d prefer to operationalize “unilaterally” more. Here’s an alternative: