I’ve been thinking lately that human group rationality seems like such a mess. Like how can humanity navigate a once in a lightcone opportunity like the AI transition without doing something very suboptimal (i.e., losing most of potential value), when the vast majority of humans (and even the elites) can’t understand (or can’t be convinced to pay attention to) many important considerations. This big picture seems intuitively very bad and I don’t know any theory of group rationality that says this is actually fine.
I guess my 1 is mostly about descriptive group rationality, and your 2 may be talking more about normative group rationality. However I’m also not aware of any good normative theories about group rationality. I started reading your meta-rationality sequence, but it ended after just two posts without going into details.
The only specific thing you mention here is “advance predictions” but for example, moral philosophy deals with “ought” questions and can’t provide advance predictions. Can you say more about how you think group rationality should work, especially when advance predictions isn’t possible?
From your group rationality perspective, why is it good that rationalists individually have better views about AI? Why shouldn’t each person just say what they think from their own preferred frame, and then let humanity integrate that into some kind of aggregate view or outcome, using group rationality?
I started reading your meta-rationality sequence, but it ended after just two posts without going into details.
David Chapman’s website seems like the standard reference for what the post-rationalists call “metarationality”. (I haven’t read much of it, but the little I read made me somewhat unenthusiastic about continuing).
I’ve been thinking lately that human group rationality seems like such a mess. Like how can humanity navigate a once in a lightcone opportunity like the AI transition without doing something very suboptimal (i.e., losing most of potential value), when the vast majority of humans (and even the elites) can’t understand (or can’t be convinced to pay attention to) many important considerations. This big picture seems intuitively very bad and I don’t know any theory of group rationality that says this is actually fine.
I guess my 1 is mostly about descriptive group rationality, and your 2 may be talking more about normative group rationality. However I’m also not aware of any good normative theories about group rationality. I started reading your meta-rationality sequence, but it ended after just two posts without going into details.
The only specific thing you mention here is “advance predictions” but for example, moral philosophy deals with “ought” questions and can’t provide advance predictions. Can you say more about how you think group rationality should work, especially when advance predictions isn’t possible?
From your group rationality perspective, why is it good that rationalists individually have better views about AI? Why shouldn’t each person just say what they think from their own preferred frame, and then let humanity integrate that into some kind of aggregate view or outcome, using group rationality?
David Chapman’s website seems like the standard reference for what the post-rationalists call “metarationality”. (I haven’t read much of it, but the little I read made me somewhat unenthusiastic about continuing).