World champion in Chess: “It’s really weird that I’m world champion. It must be a simulation or I must dream or..”
Joe Biden: “It’s really weird I’m president, it must be a simul...” (Donald Trump: “It really really makes no sense I’m president, it MUST be a s..”)
David Chalmers: “It’s really weird I’m providing the seminal hard problem formulation. It must be a sim..”
...
Rationalist (before finding lesswrong): “Gosh, all these people around me, really wired differently than I am. I must be in a simulation.”
Something seems funny to me in the anthropic reasoning in these examples, and in yours too.
Of course we have one world champion in chess or anything, so a reasoning that means that world champion quasi by definition question’s his champion-ness, seems odd. Then, I’d be lying if I claimed I could not intuitively empathize with his wondering about the odds of exactly him being the world champion among 9 billions.
This leads me to the following, that eventually +- satisfies me:
Hypothetically, imagine each generation has only 1 person, and there’s rebirth: it’s just a rebirth of the same person, in a different generation.
With some simplification:
For 10 000 generations you lived in stone-age conditions
For 1 generation—today—you’re the hinge-of-history generation
X (X being: you won’t live anymore at all as AI killed everything; or you live 1 mio generations happily, served by AI, or what have you).
The 10 000 you’s didn’t have much reason to wonder about hinge of history, and so doesn’t happen to think about it. The one you, in the hinge-of-history generation, by definition, has much reasons to think about the hinge-of-history, and does think about it.
So, it has becomes a bit like a lottery game, which you repeat so many times until you naturally once draw the winning number. At that lucky punch, there’s no reason to think “Unlikely, it’s probably a simulation”, or anything.
I have the impression in the similar way, the reincarnated guy should not wonder about it, neither when his memory is wiped each time, and in the same vein (hm, am I sloppy here? that’s the hinge of my argument) neither you have to wonder too much.
World champion in Chess: “It’s really weird that I’m world champion. It must be a simulation or I must dream or..”
Joe Biden: “It’s really weird I’m president, it must be a simul...”
(Donald Trump: “It really really makes no sense I’m president, it MUST be a s..”)
David Chalmers: “It’s really weird I’m providing the seminal hard problem formulation. It must be a sim..”
...
Rationalist (before finding lesswrong): “Gosh, all these people around me, really wired differently than I am. I must be in a simulation.”
Something seems funny to me in the anthropic reasoning in these examples, and in yours too.
Of course we have one world champion in chess or anything, so a reasoning that means that world champion quasi by definition question’s his champion-ness, seems odd. Then, I’d be lying if I claimed I could not intuitively empathize with his wondering about the odds of exactly him being the world champion among 9 billions.
This leads me to the following, that eventually +- satisfies me:
Hypothetically, imagine each generation has only 1 person, and there’s rebirth: it’s just a rebirth of the same person, in a different generation.
With some simplification:
For 10 000 generations you lived in stone-age conditions
For 1 generation—today—you’re the hinge-of-history generation
X (X being: you won’t live anymore at all as AI killed everything; or you live 1 mio generations happily, served by AI, or what have you).
The 10 000 you’s didn’t have much reason to wonder about hinge of history, and so doesn’t happen to think about it. The one you, in the hinge-of-history generation, by definition, has much reasons to think about the hinge-of-history, and does think about it.
So, it has becomes a bit like a lottery game, which you repeat so many times until you naturally once draw the winning number. At that lucky punch, there’s no reason to think “Unlikely, it’s probably a simulation”, or anything.
I have the impression in the similar way, the reincarnated guy should not wonder about it, neither when his memory is wiped each time, and in the same vein (hm, am I sloppy here? that’s the hinge of my argument) neither you have to wonder too much.