I’ve used this a bit, but not loads. I prefer fatebook, metaculus and manifold and betting. I don’t quite know why I don’t use it more, here are some guesses.
I found the tool kind of hard to use
It was hard to search for the kind of information that I use to forecast
Often I would generate priors based on my current state, but those were wrong in strange ways (I knew something happened but after the deadline)
It wasn’t clear that it was helping me to get better versus doing lots of forecasting on other platforms.
I’ve used this a bit, but not loads. I prefer fatebook, metaculus and manifold and betting. I don’t quite know why I don’t use it more, here are some guesses.
I found the tool kind of hard to use
It was hard to search for the kind of information that I use to forecast
Often I would generate priors based on my current state, but those were wrong in strange ways (I knew something happened but after the deadline)
It wasn’t clear that it was helping me to get better versus doing lots of forecasting on other platforms.