I pretty much always expect positive total returns from stocks. Nothing in the OP contradicts the EMH—predicting crashes in such a way that we could profit from it is still Hard. The correct discount rate to use in EMH pricing depends on capital supply and demand, but that discount rate is still generally positive. Just like high bond prices mean that the yield is close to zero, not negative, high stock prices mean that expected returns are close to zero, not negative. (This isn’t always the case—e.g. negative interest rates in the European banks’ overnight markets during the previous decade—but that requires some fairly unusual conditions to maintain.)
So, yes, I do expect positive total returns from stocks over the next few months, though not very high on average and with quite a bit of variance.
Wait, are you expecting positive total returns from stocks over the next few months? If so, this is very non-obvious from your post.
I pretty much always expect positive total returns from stocks. Nothing in the OP contradicts the EMH—predicting crashes in such a way that we could profit from it is still Hard. The correct discount rate to use in EMH pricing depends on capital supply and demand, but that discount rate is still generally positive. Just like high bond prices mean that the yield is close to zero, not negative, high stock prices mean that expected returns are close to zero, not negative. (This isn’t always the case—e.g. negative interest rates in the European banks’ overnight markets during the previous decade—but that requires some fairly unusual conditions to maintain.)
So, yes, I do expect positive total returns from stocks over the next few months, though not very high on average and with quite a bit of variance.