If the Japanese students had put as much effort into their predictions as Eliezer has put into thinking about the singularity then I dare say they would have been rather more accurate, perhaps even more so than the “outside view” prediction.
If the Japanese students had put as much effort into their predictions as Eliezer has put into thinking about the singularity then I dare say they would have been rather more accurate, perhaps even more so than the “outside view” prediction.