I simply don’t see the justification for claiming the power and glory of the Outside View at all in cases like this, let alone claiming that there exists a unique obvious reference class and you have it.
It could even be somewhat worse. Forbidden things seem to be higher status ‘bad’ than things that can be casually dismissed.
It could even be somewhat worse. Forbidden things seem to be higher status ‘bad’ than things that can be casually dismissed.