Considering that you didn’t even try to see if I was making a bluff by offering to bet me one cent against my $2000...
S=probability of scientology involvement
2000S<0.01(1-S)
2000S<0.01-0.01S
2000.01S<0.01
S<0.000004999
Again, assuming I didn’t make any embarrassingly simple math errors, that’s an over 99.9995% confidence that the ‘scientology-related’ hypothesis was wrong.
Not that this is factoring in the hassle for both of us of setting up the judging and so on, but still, right? :P
But “the hassle of setting up the judging and so on” makes something like two orders of magnitude difference to the probability estimate here. And why would I want to call your bluff in that way?
Considering that you didn’t even try to see if I was making a bluff by offering to bet me one cent against my $2000...
S=probability of scientology involvement
2000S<0.01(1-S)
2000S<0.01-0.01S
2000.01S<0.01
S<0.000004999
Again, assuming I didn’t make any embarrassingly simple math errors, that’s an over 99.9995% confidence that the ‘scientology-related’ hypothesis was wrong.
Not that this is factoring in the hassle for both of us of setting up the judging and so on, but still, right? :P
But “the hassle of setting up the judging and so on” makes something like two orders of magnitude difference to the probability estimate here. And why would I want to call your bluff in that way?