I disagree, but this seems like something that could be settled with an anonymous survey of EAF readers more easily than via argument. There would probably be some issues with response bias, and you would have to trust EAF readers to accurately recall and report their voting patterns and voting reasons. But even for a biased or flawed survey, we could agree on a methodology and bet on the predicted results beforehand as a way of settling the disagreement.
I personally won’t take this on because the point seems pretty low stakes to me either way, but if someone else decides to, please create a Manifold market before conducting any surveys. The market description should include a description of the survey and proposed sampling method, as well as a disclaimer asking market participants not to take the survey themselves.
I disagree, but this seems like something that could be settled with an anonymous survey of EAF readers more easily than via argument. There would probably be some issues with response bias, and you would have to trust EAF readers to accurately recall and report their voting patterns and voting reasons. But even for a biased or flawed survey, we could agree on a methodology and bet on the predicted results beforehand as a way of settling the disagreement.
I personally won’t take this on because the point seems pretty low stakes to me either way, but if someone else decides to, please create a Manifold market before conducting any surveys. The market description should include a description of the survey and proposed sampling method, as well as a disclaimer asking market participants not to take the survey themselves.