That is a strange little chapter, but I should note that if you talk about the probability that you will make some future probability estimate, then the distribution of a future probability estimate does make a good way of talking about the instability of a state of knowledge. As opposed to the notion of talking about the probability of a current probability estimate, which sounds much more like you’re doing something wrong.
That is a strange little chapter, but I should note that if you talk about the probability that you will make some future probability estimate, then the distribution of a future probability estimate does make a good way of talking about the instability of a state of knowledge. As opposed to the notion of talking about the probability of a current probability estimate, which sounds much more like you’re doing something wrong.