If you really had faked this experiment, you might have settled on a lie which is not maximally beneficial to you, and then you might use exactly this argument to convince people that you’re not lying.
In this venue, you shouldn’t say things like this without giving your estimate for P(fail|fake) / P(fail).
In this venue, you shouldn’t say things like this without giving your estimate for P(fail|fake) / P(fail).
I’m not sure I know what you mean by “fail.” Can you clarify what probabilities you want me to estimate?
P(claims to have lost | faked experiment) / P(claims to have lost)
On the order of 1. I don’t think it’s strong evidence either way.