I’d love to dig into this further. I find it both interesting and useful.
Our models of the world are just very divergent in this particular spot.
Where exactly are they diverging?
One possibility is that they diverge in the likelihood of a nuclear winter being triggered, given a US-Russia nuclear exchange. On that question, I think my belief is something like a 20% probability. I basically am taking Luisa Rodriguez’ estimate of 11% and bumping it upwards a bit based on my impression of her estimate being a little lower than what is typical, and based on me being just broadly more pessimistic.
Another possibility where they diverge is, in the event of a nuclear winter, how survivable we each think it would be. I lean towards thinking it’d mean crops die out and I’d die within a year or so. You lean towards thinking that it’d be survivable long term. Crops would come back, society would rebound, and storing large amounts of food would help you get past the initial chaos and survive long enough until things rebound. Is that an accurate summary?
In prepper communities, there’s the concept of a “bug-out location”.
Cool. Thanks for introducing me to that term.
Tell me if this is naive, but I’m kinda thinking that, one situation is if you anticipate the attack early enough, you can probably just find an Airbnb (and hit the grocery stores) then. Eg. suppose Russia mobilized weapons against America or something and society in general doesn’t panic/react much.
Then another situation is where, let’s say Russia nukes NYC but not Portland. In that situation, I expect the government would have various places set up to take people in who are seeking to shelter from a subsequent attack, like at high schools or whatever. So I’d be able to head out to, say eastern Oregon and have access to one of those places.
If so, the question becomes whether it’d be safer to be in a private residence or something than say a high school.
If the private residence had a bunker or was particularly insulated, then it might do a better job of shielding against the initial impact of the bomb. But if the initial impact of a bomb something to worry about in eastern Oregon, then that sounds like a world where we’re basically doomed anyway, because eastern Oregon is low on the list of priorities to nuke, and thus it’d mean all out war, nuclear winter, anarchy, etc.
Another reason why you might be safer in a private residence is if you’re stuck there for a long time. Ie. if in the world where you shelter at a local high school, they run out of food there and you die, vs the world where you shelter in a private residence you don’t run out of food. But if that were the case, it sounds like it’d also mean the US-Russia war was extremely severe, meaning the same stuff about nuclear winter, anarchy, it being difficult to survive for various other reasons, and it not being a particularly fun world to be a part of.
I’d love to dig into this further. I find it both interesting and useful.
Where exactly are they diverging?
One possibility is that they diverge in the likelihood of a nuclear winter being triggered, given a US-Russia nuclear exchange. On that question, I think my belief is something like a 20% probability. I basically am taking Luisa Rodriguez’ estimate of 11% and bumping it upwards a bit based on my impression of her estimate being a little lower than what is typical, and based on me being just broadly more pessimistic.
Another possibility where they diverge is, in the event of a nuclear winter, how survivable we each think it would be. I lean towards thinking it’d mean crops die out and I’d die within a year or so. You lean towards thinking that it’d be survivable long term. Crops would come back, society would rebound, and storing large amounts of food would help you get past the initial chaos and survive long enough until things rebound. Is that an accurate summary?
Cool. Thanks for introducing me to that term.
Tell me if this is naive, but I’m kinda thinking that, one situation is if you anticipate the attack early enough, you can probably just find an Airbnb (and hit the grocery stores) then. Eg. suppose Russia mobilized weapons against America or something and society in general doesn’t panic/react much.
Then another situation is where, let’s say Russia nukes NYC but not Portland. In that situation, I expect the government would have various places set up to take people in who are seeking to shelter from a subsequent attack, like at high schools or whatever. So I’d be able to head out to, say eastern Oregon and have access to one of those places.
If so, the question becomes whether it’d be safer to be in a private residence or something than say a high school.
If the private residence had a bunker or was particularly insulated, then it might do a better job of shielding against the initial impact of the bomb. But if the initial impact of a bomb something to worry about in eastern Oregon, then that sounds like a world where we’re basically doomed anyway, because eastern Oregon is low on the list of priorities to nuke, and thus it’d mean all out war, nuclear winter, anarchy, etc.
Another reason why you might be safer in a private residence is if you’re stuck there for a long time. Ie. if in the world where you shelter at a local high school, they run out of food there and you die, vs the world where you shelter in a private residence you don’t run out of food. But if that were the case, it sounds like it’d also mean the US-Russia war was extremely severe, meaning the same stuff about nuclear winter, anarchy, it being difficult to survive for various other reasons, and it not being a particularly fun world to be a part of.