Thanks for the fairly open post, taking ideas seriously.
seems like the sort of thing we will need to deal with in our lifetimes at some point
Depending on what you mean by “dealing with”, many of us have been dealing with it for a long time. It’s not the sort of thing that stays dealt-with, so it’s an ongoing process of minor contributions, not a “fix it and move to the next problem” thing.
My advice: anything you can think to do, say, or spend, to reduce the chance of a worldwide nuclear exchange (including just living a normal life and trying to provide some trade value to people around you or distant from you, to participate in economic connectedness) is likely to be MUCH more effective than trying to find a place to run away to.
How much do you value life?
Note this is not (for me, nor for most I think) a point-value. It’s not “life with some modifications” vs “cleanly dead”, it’s a huge range of projections of duration and enjoyment of life. Unless you give a significant weight to potential immortality before significant degradation (I do not, but some here do), you probably want to optimize quality in addition to duration.
How much do you value not having to move to X (or take whatever other action)?
Plus “how does it change in the event of a catastrophic disaster”? Honestly, moving to farmland isn’t likely to save anyone—if most cities are destroyed, so is the government that makes your home safe to be in and enables the cooperation and infrastructure to deliver food. Being dead in Portland or being alive but starving and under siege by refugees and militant neighbors in Bend is actually a difficult valuation.
How likely is it that you get attacked?
And what range of outcomes if you do, with what probabilities? My estimates are that if the suburbs of Portland OR are nuked, the rest of the civilized world is also destroyed or unlivable. There’s a VERY narrow probability window of value-of-life for non-disastrous actions made now to help in the event of a worldwide nuclear war. Building a commune/compound with self-sufficient farming, bunkers and a small army of trusted, armed followers might be effective, but is probably more than most of us want to commit.
How likely is it that you die in an attack?
Death in the attack is the easy outcome. How likely is it that you survive the attack and face starvation, gangs, sickness, etc. afterward? What actions can change the probabilities of those outcomes?
Thanks for the fairly open post, taking ideas seriously.
Thanks for the engagement.
Depending on what you mean by “dealing with”, many of us have been dealing with it for a long time.
Yeah, I wasn’t very clear here, sorry.
What I meant is something like figuring out what your options are, at what level of risk you would pursue each option, and how you would go about evaluating the level of risk. Ie. “I would move to South Africa if I thought there was a 1/1000 chance of being attacked. I would do A if I thought there was an X% chance of attack. B if Y%. C if Z%. D if I had this amount of time. E if that amount of time. Etc. And for evaluating the level of risk, I will use Alice, Bob and Carol as my sources of information.”
This does actually seem like the sort of thing you could move on from once you’ve “figured it out”, for the most part. Or maybe there is something I’m not seeing. What do you think?
My advice: anything you can think to do, say, or spend, to reduce the chance of a worldwide nuclear exchange (including just living a normal life and trying to provide some trade value to people around you or distant from you, to participate in economic connectedness) is likely to be MUCH more effective than trying to find a place to run away to.
This doesn’t make sense to me. Suppose I participate in economic trade by doing some freelance programming work for someone in, say, Germany. That seems like it’d have a negligible impact on reducing the chance of nuclear war.
Note this is not (for me, nor for most I think) a point-value. It’s not “life with some modifications” vs “cleanly dead”, it’s a huge range of projections of duration and enjoyment of life.
Yeah, that is true. Although I am a big believer in the need to simplify things. Incorporating how much you value life in all of the various scenarios and stuff seems like it’d make the question too difficult to think about.
So what makes sense to me would be to use some sort of multiplier to cut down the original value you’d place on life. Life after a nuclear war seems like it’d be a lot worse. So maybe it’d make sense to use a 1⁄10 multiplier? Eg. If you value it originally at $10M, life after nuclear war would only be worth $1M? Hard to say.
Plus “how does it change in the event of a catastrophic disaster”? Honestly, moving to farmland isn’t likely to save anyone—if most cities are destroyed, so is the government that makes your home safe to be in and enables the cooperation and infrastructure to deliver food. Being dead in Portland or being alive but starving and under siege by refugees and militant neighbors in Bend is actually a difficult valuation.
Hm, good point. This too I am finding difficult to think about. I do agree that government and infrastructure would be significantly, significantly harmed. But maybe other countries would be in tact enough, and one can survive long enough until help comes from them? At least it’s progress to have identified this as one of the cruxes.
Thanks for the fairly open post, taking ideas seriously.
Depending on what you mean by “dealing with”, many of us have been dealing with it for a long time. It’s not the sort of thing that stays dealt-with, so it’s an ongoing process of minor contributions, not a “fix it and move to the next problem” thing.
My advice: anything you can think to do, say, or spend, to reduce the chance of a worldwide nuclear exchange (including just living a normal life and trying to provide some trade value to people around you or distant from you, to participate in economic connectedness) is likely to be MUCH more effective than trying to find a place to run away to.
Note this is not (for me, nor for most I think) a point-value. It’s not “life with some modifications” vs “cleanly dead”, it’s a huge range of projections of duration and enjoyment of life. Unless you give a significant weight to potential immortality before significant degradation (I do not, but some here do), you probably want to optimize quality in addition to duration.
Plus “how does it change in the event of a catastrophic disaster”? Honestly, moving to farmland isn’t likely to save anyone—if most cities are destroyed, so is the government that makes your home safe to be in and enables the cooperation and infrastructure to deliver food. Being dead in Portland or being alive but starving and under siege by refugees and militant neighbors in Bend is actually a difficult valuation.
And what range of outcomes if you do, with what probabilities? My estimates are that if the suburbs of Portland OR are nuked, the rest of the civilized world is also destroyed or unlivable. There’s a VERY narrow probability window of value-of-life for non-disastrous actions made now to help in the event of a worldwide nuclear war. Building a commune/compound with self-sufficient farming, bunkers and a small army of trusted, armed followers might be effective, but is probably more than most of us want to commit.
Death in the attack is the easy outcome. How likely is it that you survive the attack and face starvation, gangs, sickness, etc. afterward? What actions can change the probabilities of those outcomes?
Thanks for the engagement.
Yeah, I wasn’t very clear here, sorry.
What I meant is something like figuring out what your options are, at what level of risk you would pursue each option, and how you would go about evaluating the level of risk. Ie. “I would move to South Africa if I thought there was a 1/1000 chance of being attacked. I would do A if I thought there was an X% chance of attack. B if Y%. C if Z%. D if I had this amount of time. E if that amount of time. Etc. And for evaluating the level of risk, I will use Alice, Bob and Carol as my sources of information.”
This does actually seem like the sort of thing you could move on from once you’ve “figured it out”, for the most part. Or maybe there is something I’m not seeing. What do you think?
This doesn’t make sense to me. Suppose I participate in economic trade by doing some freelance programming work for someone in, say, Germany. That seems like it’d have a negligible impact on reducing the chance of nuclear war.
But perhaps one can shut up and do the impossible, if that is what you mean. Seems quite difficult though.
Yeah, that is true. Although I am a big believer in the need to simplify things. Incorporating how much you value life in all of the various scenarios and stuff seems like it’d make the question too difficult to think about.
So what makes sense to me would be to use some sort of multiplier to cut down the original value you’d place on life. Life after a nuclear war seems like it’d be a lot worse. So maybe it’d make sense to use a 1⁄10 multiplier? Eg. If you value it originally at $10M, life after nuclear war would only be worth $1M? Hard to say.
Hm, good point. This too I am finding difficult to think about. I do agree that government and infrastructure would be significantly, significantly harmed. But maybe other countries would be in tact enough, and one can survive long enough until help comes from them? At least it’s progress to have identified this as one of the cruxes.