I definitely agree with the continuum idea. There’s an A% chance that life is X% as valuable as it was. B% chance that it is Y% as valuable. C% chance that it is Z% as valuable. Etc. However, thinking about it that way is difficult. It is easier to just think about it as if there is an A% chance of this single bad thing happening.
Just a thought on this portion of the exploration. It’s definitely easier to think about the simplified world, but that simplification will impact your option-set as well, and you’ll miss out on value in a whole lot of the actual probability space, because you collapsed it into a different scenario.
You can’t avoid it completely—there are simply too many possibilities and actions to consider in a human brain in a reasonable amount of time. But quantizing to 3-5 scenarios can be a lot more useful than just 2, and will help counteract some of the human biases that crop up if you’re thinking in binary terms.
Very good point, thanks for making it. I think I probably simplify too much. I like the advice to quantize to 3-5 scenarios. I think it’ll help prompt me to get a better feel for my actual option-set, like you said. Making a mental note to do this more in general moving forward.
Just a thought on this portion of the exploration. It’s definitely easier to think about the simplified world, but that simplification will impact your option-set as well, and you’ll miss out on value in a whole lot of the actual probability space, because you collapsed it into a different scenario.
You can’t avoid it completely—there are simply too many possibilities and actions to consider in a human brain in a reasonable amount of time. But quantizing to 3-5 scenarios can be a lot more useful than just 2, and will help counteract some of the human biases that crop up if you’re thinking in binary terms.
Very good point, thanks for making it. I think I probably simplify too much. I like the advice to quantize to 3-5 scenarios. I think it’ll help prompt me to get a better feel for my actual option-set, like you said. Making a mental note to do this more in general moving forward.