If you mean this my comment would be that that proposes accounting for uncertainty by appropriately penalising the utitilies associated with the charities you are unsure about. However, charities, especially bad charities, might well be trying to manipulate people’s percieved confidence that they are sound—so those figures might be bad.
If perceived utility is negatively correlated (at the top end) with actual utility, as in your example, then your strategy is superior to putting it all in the perceived-best. However, if you expect this to be the case, then you should update your beliefs on perceived utility. If the figures might be bad, account for that in the figures!
If there is even a small correlation, putting it all in one is optimal.
I’m hitting the ‘bozo button’ for Tim in this conversation. The math has been explained to him several times over.
If you mean this my comment would be that that proposes accounting for uncertainty by appropriately penalising the utitilies associated with the charities you are unsure about. However, charities, especially bad charities, might well be trying to manipulate people’s percieved confidence that they are sound—so those figures might be bad.
If perceived utility is negatively correlated (at the top end) with actual utility, as in your example, then your strategy is superior to putting it all in the perceived-best. However, if you expect this to be the case, then you should update your beliefs on perceived utility. If the figures might be bad, account for that in the figures!
If there is even a small correlation, putting it all in one is optimal.