If indeed OpenAI does restructure to the point where its equity is now genuine, then $150 billion seems way too low as a valuation
Why is OpenAI worth much more than $150B, when Anthropic is currently valued at only $30-40B? Also, loudly broadcasting this reduces OpenAI’s cost of equity, which is undesirable if you think OpenAI is a bad actor.
Apparently the current funding round hasn’t closed yet and might be in some trouble, and it seems much better for the world if the round was to fail or be done at a significantly lower valuation (in part to send a message to other CEOs not to imitate SamA’s recent behavior). Zvi saying that $150B greatly undervalues OpenAI at this time seems like a big unforced error, which I wonder if he could still correct in some way.
If I had to guess, my answer would center around “Microsoft” for OpenAI and “Maybe actually taking commitments seriously enough to impede expectations of future profit and growth,” for Anthropic.
While this may or may not happen, if we really expect multi-GW data center demand to be a limiting factor in growth, then “Our backer can get Three Mile Island reopened” is a pretty big value add. It’s possible Amazon would be able and willing to do that, but they’ve got ~4x less invested than Microsoft, and Google would presumably prioritize Gemini and DeepMind over Anthropic.
Why is OpenAI worth much more than $150B, when Anthropic is currently valued at only $30-40B? Also, loudly broadcasting this reduces OpenAI’s cost of equity, which is undesirable if you think OpenAI is a bad actor.
Apparently the current funding round hasn’t closed yet and might be in some trouble, and it seems much better for the world if the round was to fail or be done at a significantly lower valuation (in part to send a message to other CEOs not to imitate SamA’s recent behavior). Zvi saying that $150B greatly undervalues OpenAI at this time seems like a big unforced error, which I wonder if he could still correct in some way.
If I had to guess, my answer would center around “Microsoft” for OpenAI and “Maybe actually taking commitments seriously enough to impede expectations of future profit and growth,” for Anthropic.
While this may or may not happen, if we really expect multi-GW data center demand to be a limiting factor in growth, then “Our backer can get Three Mile Island reopened” is a pretty big value add. It’s possible Amazon would be able and willing to do that, but they’ve got ~4x less invested than Microsoft, and Google would presumably prioritize Gemini and DeepMind over Anthropic.