If indeed OpenAI does restructure to the point where its equity is now genuine, then $150 billion seems way too low as a valuation
Why is OpenAI worth much more than $150B, when Anthropic is currently valued at only $30-40B? Also, loudly broadcasting this reduces OpenAI’s cost of equity, which is undesirable if you think OpenAI is a bad actor.
If I had to guess, my answer would center around “Microsoft” for OpenAI and “Maybe actually taking commitments seriously enough to impede expectations of future profit and growth,” for Anthropic.
While this may or may not happen, if we really expect multi-GW data center demand to be a limiting factor in growth, then “Our backer can get Three Mile Island reopened” is a pretty big value add. It’s possible Amazon would be able and willing to do that, but they’ve got ~4x less invested than Microsoft, and Google would presumably prioritize Gemini and DeepMind over Anthropic.
Why is OpenAI worth much more than $150B, when Anthropic is currently valued at only $30-40B? Also, loudly broadcasting this reduces OpenAI’s cost of equity, which is undesirable if you think OpenAI is a bad actor.
If I had to guess, my answer would center around “Microsoft” for OpenAI and “Maybe actually taking commitments seriously enough to impede expectations of future profit and growth,” for Anthropic.
While this may or may not happen, if we really expect multi-GW data center demand to be a limiting factor in growth, then “Our backer can get Three Mile Island reopened” is a pretty big value add. It’s possible Amazon would be able and willing to do that, but they’ve got ~4x less invested than Microsoft, and Google would presumably prioritize Gemini and DeepMind over Anthropic.