It’s unclear to me whether I should think of the forecasters as more replaceable than Elizabeth. If they’re all generalist researchers, having “a bunch of generalist researchers do generalist research for the same amount of time as the original researcher” doesn’t seem obviously scalable.
(That said, my current belief is that this work was pretty interesting and important overall)
The forecasters were only quite loosely selected for “some forecasting experience”. Some of them I know are very able forecasters, others are people much less experienced, and who I don’t think are affiliated that much with the rationality or effective altruism communities.
It’s unclear to me whether I should think of the forecasters as more replaceable than Elizabeth. If they’re all generalist researchers, having “a bunch of generalist researchers do generalist research for the same amount of time as the original researcher” doesn’t seem obviously scalable.
(That said, my current belief is that this work was pretty interesting and important overall)
The forecasters were only quite loosely selected for “some forecasting experience”. Some of them I know are very able forecasters, others are people much less experienced, and who I don’t think are affiliated that much with the rationality or effective altruism communities.