but that they are substantially less likely than with other systems. See for example Western Europe now as opposed to 150 years ago.
We can’t be sure to credit democracy for this and not say most of the continent being part of the same military alliance or common market. One could make the case that the creation of the alliance (NATO) happened because the nations invovled where democratic and willing to cooperate, but historically it seems to have arisen from victory of the Western Allies in WW2 and it included countries such as Greece even when not democratic. Its mirror image the Warshaw pact also arose under similar conditions. It seems most probable that for the bulk of the second half of the 20th century the uneasy global peace between the USSR and the USA is what kept the peace in Europe. Long periods of relative peace are hardly unpredcedented in European history.
We can’t be sure to credit democracy for this and not say most of the continent being part of the same military alliance or common market.
Sure, and we can’t rule out the sheer risk of nuclear war, or anthropic issues (if every European war quickly escalates into nuclear war we might have a serious survivorship bias). Also it is possible that stronger taboos have simply made war less acceptable (although that might be due to democracy in part),.
Long periods of relative peace are hardly unpredcedented in European history.
The Concert of Europe is an interesting example to some extent as to how different the post World War II Western Europe looks from that. You had for example a large number of civil wars and revolutions, as well as proxy conflicts outside Europe and then outright wars like the Schleswig wars and the Franco-Prussian war. In contrast, there have been zero wars in Western Europe post-1945, whether civil wars, external wars, or proxy conflicts among the Western European powers. Moreover, much of the lack of war during the Concert is attributable to a drop in the number of conflicts between France and Britain which in that time period had become functioning democracies.
You had for example a large number of civil wars and revolutions, as well as proxy conflicts outside Europe and then outright wars like the Schleswig wars and the Franco-Prussian war.
You need to familiarize yourself with British and especially French history if you think they didn’t wage proxy wars in the Cold War era. The outright wars you mention happened after decades of peace at the end of this period as the system broke down more and more post 1848. Need I remind you the modern European peace also had its outright wars like the Yugoslav wars.
In contrast, there have been zero wars in Western Europe post-1945, whether civil wars, external wars
I thought we where talking about Europe not Western Europe. I’m sure I can pick and choose a subregion of Europe that didn’t have any civil wars in that period quite easily as well.
You need to familiarize yourself with British and especially French history if you think they didn’t wage proxy wars in the Cold War era.
Do you have specific examples of them waging proxy wars with each other post 1945?
The outright wars you mention happened after decades of peace at the end of this period as the system broke down more and more post 1848.
The First Schleswig war is 1848-1851. The second is 1864. If you want to argue that the Concert only really worked until 1848 that’s a viable argument, and I’ agree that was a period of relatively high peace. But that’s also only 33 years, about half the time between 1945 and now.
In contrast, there have been zero wars in Western Europe post-1945, whether civil wars, external wars
I thought we where talking about Europe not Western Europe. I’m sure I can pick and choose a subregion of Europe that didn’t have any civil wars in that period quite easily as well.
My original statement was:
See for example Western Europe now as opposed to 150 years ago.
But it may be worth examining Europe as a whole then. Wikipedia lists if I counted correctly 52 European conflicts between 1815 and 1914. It lists 45 conflicts post 1945. That supports your viewpoint in that there’s actually a higher average number of conflicts being started per a year in the post 1945 period. There’s some complicating factors in that both lists have a variety of conflicts which clearly don’t constitute outright wars. I’m not sure what criteria are best to use here to decide which conflicts count as wars and which don’t, but an eyeball estimate looks like there are a fair number that shouldn’t be called wars in both time periods.
Ah, I thought you were talking about one of the subremarks where I said:
Moreover, much of the lack of war during the Concert is attributable to a drop in the number of conflicts between France and Britain which in that time period had become functioning democracies.
That was in the context of what caused the Concert to work.
We can’t be sure to credit democracy for this and not say most of the continent being part of the same military alliance or common market. One could make the case that the creation of the alliance (NATO) happened because the nations invovled where democratic and willing to cooperate, but historically it seems to have arisen from victory of the Western Allies in WW2 and it included countries such as Greece even when not democratic. Its mirror image the Warshaw pact also arose under similar conditions. It seems most probable that for the bulk of the second half of the 20th century the uneasy global peace between the USSR and the USA is what kept the peace in Europe. Long periods of relative peace are hardly unpredcedented in European history.
Sure, and we can’t rule out the sheer risk of nuclear war, or anthropic issues (if every European war quickly escalates into nuclear war we might have a serious survivorship bias). Also it is possible that stronger taboos have simply made war less acceptable (although that might be due to democracy in part),.
The Concert of Europe is an interesting example to some extent as to how different the post World War II Western Europe looks from that. You had for example a large number of civil wars and revolutions, as well as proxy conflicts outside Europe and then outright wars like the Schleswig wars and the Franco-Prussian war. In contrast, there have been zero wars in Western Europe post-1945, whether civil wars, external wars, or proxy conflicts among the Western European powers. Moreover, much of the lack of war during the Concert is attributable to a drop in the number of conflicts between France and Britain which in that time period had become functioning democracies.
You need to familiarize yourself with British and especially French history if you think they didn’t wage proxy wars in the Cold War era. The outright wars you mention happened after decades of peace at the end of this period as the system broke down more and more post 1848. Need I remind you the modern European peace also had its outright wars like the Yugoslav wars.
I thought we where talking about Europe not Western Europe. I’m sure I can pick and choose a subregion of Europe that didn’t have any civil wars in that period quite easily as well.
Do you have specific examples of them waging proxy wars with each other post 1945?
The First Schleswig war is 1848-1851. The second is 1864. If you want to argue that the Concert only really worked until 1848 that’s a viable argument, and I’ agree that was a period of relatively high peace. But that’s also only 33 years, about half the time between 1945 and now.
My original statement was:
But it may be worth examining Europe as a whole then. Wikipedia lists if I counted correctly 52 European conflicts between 1815 and 1914. It lists 45 conflicts post 1945. That supports your viewpoint in that there’s actually a higher average number of conflicts being started per a year in the post 1945 period. There’s some complicating factors in that both lists have a variety of conflicts which clearly don’t constitute outright wars. I’m not sure what criteria are best to use here to decide which conflicts count as wars and which don’t, but an eyeball estimate looks like there are a fair number that shouldn’t be called wars in both time periods.
Not with each other but certainly with at least on other European power (the Soviet Union).
Sorry, my mistake.
Well, yes obviously. I’m confused as to how that’s relevant in context.
I thought you where talking about the whole of Europe not commenting just on French-British relations.
Ah, I thought you were talking about one of the subremarks where I said:
That was in the context of what caused the Concert to work.