I doubt the professional politicians who are making big decisions actually have such wildly disparate predictions. Rather it seems that political amateurs have lousy predictions about who is likely to win—not surprising since the stakes for amateurs are pretty low. Intrade has Obama’s chances at 51% for reelection. I would be surprised of the GOP leaders in Washington are banking on winning the trifecta.
I doubt the professional politicians who are making big decisions actually have such wildly disparate predictions. Rather it seems that political amateurs have lousy predictions about who is likely to win—not surprising since the stakes for amateurs are pretty low. Intrade has Obama’s chances at 51% for reelection. I would be surprised of the GOP leaders in Washington are banking on winning the trifecta.