24 times players flipped a coin and or were otherwise too random. Of those players: 12 players picked option “one box” and walked away with $1,000
There are ways this is possible under the stated problem, but I’m not sure it is what you intend, so let me try to lay it out explicitly.
Here are what I see as the straightforward possibilities for a one-boxer:
0 dollars (If Omega put no Money into Box A) (Omega may need to Pay Alpha in this case, but Fred doesn’t care about this.)
1,000,000 dollars (If Omega put Money into Box A)
At least 2,000,000,000,000 (If any other item occurred in box A)
So Fred getting 1,000 dollars one a one box is possible, but I don’t see it as straightforward. Here’s one way I think it might work:
Since another amount of money occurred, and Omega did say the following:
but be warned that if my model predicted that you’ll use a method which introduces too large a random element (such as tossing a coin) then, while I may lose my bet with Alpha, I’ll certainly have made sure you won’t win the $1,000,000.
Omega may have put a “Fred, as a random chooser, you owe me 999,999,999,000 and Alpha 1,000,000,000,000” into Box A and leaves Box B empty if Omega predicts Fred will use a random element. (I’m assuming Alpha will not agree to a scenario where Omega can money pump Alpha without Omega even making a correct prediction.)
That would leave Fred with 1,000 dollars, since Omega would have violated the terms, and triggered the two 1,000,000,000,000 payments, which Omega can immediately counter with the above mentioned UOME.
So my piece of advice would be “Fred, ask one of the other Humans who randomed and one boxed because of the random result how they only got 1,000 dollars. That may or may not be exploitable, since it may have been the above, or it may have been something else. But assuming it isn’t exploitable, (and it probably isn’t, Omega probably knows you’ve talked to me and might be able to put even more negative money or even death in box A.) Pick one box, and take box A, because people who do that get more money then people who two box or people who random, and Omega has a vested interest in winning the bets with Alpha.”
There are ways this is possible under the stated problem, but I’m not sure it is what you intend, so let me try to lay it out explicitly.
Here are what I see as the straightforward possibilities for a one-boxer:
0 dollars (If Omega put no Money into Box A) (Omega may need to Pay Alpha in this case, but Fred doesn’t care about this.)
1,000,000 dollars (If Omega put Money into Box A)
At least 2,000,000,000,000 (If any other item occurred in box A)
So Fred getting 1,000 dollars one a one box is possible, but I don’t see it as straightforward. Here’s one way I think it might work:
Since another amount of money occurred, and Omega did say the following:
Omega may have put a “Fred, as a random chooser, you owe me 999,999,999,000 and Alpha 1,000,000,000,000” into Box A and leaves Box B empty if Omega predicts Fred will use a random element. (I’m assuming Alpha will not agree to a scenario where Omega can money pump Alpha without Omega even making a correct prediction.)
That would leave Fred with 1,000 dollars, since Omega would have violated the terms, and triggered the two 1,000,000,000,000 payments, which Omega can immediately counter with the above mentioned UOME.
So my piece of advice would be “Fred, ask one of the other Humans who randomed and one boxed because of the random result how they only got 1,000 dollars. That may or may not be exploitable, since it may have been the above, or it may have been something else. But assuming it isn’t exploitable, (and it probably isn’t, Omega probably knows you’ve talked to me and might be able to put even more negative money or even death in box A.) Pick one box, and take box A, because people who do that get more money then people who two box or people who random, and Omega has a vested interest in winning the bets with Alpha.”
Thank you. Corrected.