I think we’re past the point where it matters. If we had a few lost decades in the mid-twentieth century, maybe, (and just to be cognitively polite here, this is just my intuition talking) the intelligence explosion could have been delayed significantly. We are just a decade off from home computers with >100 teraflops, not to mention the distressing trend of neuromorphic hardware (Here’s Ben Chandler of the SyNAPSE project talking about his work on HackerNews)With all this inertia, it would take an extremely large downturn to slow us now. Engineering a new AI winter seems like a better idea, though I’m confused about how this could be done. Perceptrons discredited connectionist approaches for a surprisingly long time, perhaps a similar book could discredit (and indirectly defund) dangerous branches of AI which aren’t useful for FAI research—but this seems unlikely, though less so than OP significantly altering economic growth either way.
I think we’re past the point where it matters. If we had a few lost decades in the mid-twentieth century, maybe, (and just to be cognitively polite here, this is just my intuition talking) the intelligence explosion could have been delayed significantly. We are just a decade off from home computers with >100 teraflops, not to mention the distressing trend of neuromorphic hardware (Here’s Ben Chandler of the SyNAPSE project talking about his work on HackerNews)With all this inertia, it would take an extremely large downturn to slow us now. Engineering a new AI winter seems like a better idea, though I’m confused about how this could be done. Perceptrons discredited connectionist approaches for a surprisingly long time, perhaps a similar book could discredit (and indirectly defund) dangerous branches of AI which aren’t useful for FAI research—but this seems unlikely, though less so than OP significantly altering economic growth either way.