Also: Many likely reasons for something to happen about this center around, in appropriate generality, the rationalist!EA movement. This movement is growing at a higher exponent than current economic growth.
I think this is the strongest single argument that economic growth might currently be bad. However even then what matters is the elasticity of movement growth rates with economic growth rates. I don’t know how we can measure this; I expect it’s positive and less than one, but I’m rather more confident about that lower bound than the upper bound.
Also: Many likely reasons for something to happen about this center around, in appropriate generality, the rationalist!EA movement. This movement is growing at a higher exponent than current economic growth.
I think this is the strongest single argument that economic growth might currently be bad. However even then what matters is the elasticity of movement growth rates with economic growth rates. I don’t know how we can measure this; I expect it’s positive and less than one, but I’m rather more confident about that lower bound than the upper bound.