All of which are true in other possible worlds, which for all we know may have a greater amplitude than ours. That we are alive does not give us any information on how probable we are, because we can’t observe the reference class. For all we know, we’re one of those worlds that skate very, very close to the edge of disaster, and the two recessions of the aughts are the only thing that have kept us alive; but those recessions were actually extremely unlikely, and the “mainline” branches of humanity, the most probable ones, are alive because the Cuban War of 1963 set the economy back to steam and horses. (To be sure, they have their problems, but UFAI isn’t among them.)
Note that, if you take many-worlds seriously, then in branches where UFAI is developed, there will still be some probability of survival due to five cosmic rays with exactly the right energies hitting the central CPU at just the right times and places, causing SkyNet to divide by zero instead of three. But the ones who survive due to that event won’t be very probable humans. :)
All of which are true in other possible worlds, which for all we know may have a greater amplitude than ours. That we are alive does not give us any information on how probable we are, because we can’t observe the reference class. For all we know, we’re one of those worlds that skate very, very close to the edge of disaster, and the two recessions of the aughts are the only thing that have kept us alive; but those recessions were actually extremely unlikely, and the “mainline” branches of humanity, the most probable ones, are alive because the Cuban War of 1963 set the economy back to steam and horses. (To be sure, they have their problems, but UFAI isn’t among them.)
Note that, if you take many-worlds seriously, then in branches where UFAI is developed, there will still be some probability of survival due to five cosmic rays with exactly the right energies hitting the central CPU at just the right times and places, causing SkyNet to divide by zero instead of three. But the ones who survive due to that event won’t be very probable humans. :)