At first I had sort of an outside view idea that a) other countries are successfully recovering, b) the US might have had a worse government response and more irresponsible citizens, but I don’t think it’s that far off from the reference class of these other countries, and thus c) the US won’t have that much worse an outcome.
In retrospect this seems silly. Now it seems to me that because of how powerful exponential growth is, small-ish differences can totally lead to drastically different outcomes.
At first I had sort of an outside view idea that a) other countries are successfully recovering, b) the US might have had a worse government response and more irresponsible citizens, but I don’t think it’s that far off from the reference class of these other countries, and thus c) the US won’t have that much worse an outcome.
In retrospect this seems silly. Now it seems to me that because of how powerful exponential growth is, small-ish differences can totally lead to drastically different outcomes.