Not necessarily a proper subset. I consider a Singularity to be unlikely but P(Bad Singularity Occurs|Singularity Occurs) to me is high. I’m disturbed by the fact that the smartest Singulitarians seem to be people who agree with this assessment and that our primary disagreement is just on P(Singularity). I doubt I’m a representative sample, so it does seem that to a close approximation your assessment is correct.
Not necessarily a proper subset. I consider a Singularity to be unlikely but P(Bad Singularity Occurs|Singularity Occurs) to me is high. I’m disturbed by the fact that the smartest Singulitarians seem to be people who agree with this assessment and that our primary disagreement is just on P(Singularity). I doubt I’m a representative sample, so it does seem that to a close approximation your assessment is correct.