I’m dead sure you’d need more than ‘just more than a doubling’ for the payoff to make sense. Let’s assume two things.
Net utility naturally doubles for humans roughly every 300,000 years. (This is deliberately conservative, recent history would suggest something much faster, but the numbers are so stupidly asymmetric, using recent history would be silly. Homo Sapiens have been around that long, net utility has doubled at least once in that time)
The universe will experience heat death in roughly 10^100 years.
Before you even try to factor in the volatility costs, time value of enjoying that utility, etc. your payoff has to be something like 2^10^95.
I’m dead sure you’d need more than ‘just more than a doubling’ for the payoff to make sense. Let’s assume two things.
Net utility naturally doubles for humans roughly every 300,000 years. (This is deliberately conservative, recent history would suggest something much faster, but the numbers are so stupidly asymmetric, using recent history would be silly. Homo Sapiens have been around that long, net utility has doubled at least once in that time)
The universe will experience heat death in roughly 10^100 years.
Before you even try to factor in the volatility costs, time value of enjoying that utility, etc. your payoff has to be something like 2^10^95.