Thank you! Somehow I’ve missed the linked article. Will read it.
I’m not sure about GJP being faster. Judging by the plot, Metaculus was almost at all times higher (and thus closer to the truth) than both GJI and GJO. And the movements look like GJI/GJO were tracking Metaculus (for example, the upward movement on 15-Jan).
You’re probably right. I was myopically looking only at the rightmost portion where GJP updated to ~99% a bit quicker. It also seems like GJP had a more erratic trajectory than Metaculus.
Actually, GJP forecasters updated a bit more quickly than Metaculus[EDIT: probably not, look up the reply below]Thank you! Somehow I’ve missed the linked article. Will read it.
I’m not sure about GJP being faster. Judging by the plot, Metaculus was almost at all times higher (and thus closer to the truth) than both GJI and GJO. And the movements look like GJI/GJO were tracking Metaculus (for example, the upward movement on 15-Jan).
You’re probably right. I was myopically looking only at the rightmost portion where GJP updated to ~99% a bit quicker. It also seems like GJP had a more erratic trajectory than Metaculus.