I think your model is a bit simplistic. METR has absolutely influenced the behavior of the big labs, including DeepMind. Even if all impact goes through the big labs, you could have more influence outside of the lab than as one of many employees within. Being the head of a regulatory agency that oversees the labs sets policy in a much more direct way than a mid level exec within the company can.
Is there evidence that METR had more than nominal impact? I also think the lack of clout will limit his influence in the government. To some government employee, he’s just someone from a random startup they never heard of having outsized influence. Within that agency he’s just a cog in some slow moving behemoth. Within OpenAI he is at least an influential voice in the safety org.
I think your model is a bit simplistic. METR has absolutely influenced the behavior of the big labs, including DeepMind. Even if all impact goes through the big labs, you could have more influence outside of the lab than as one of many employees within. Being the head of a regulatory agency that oversees the labs sets policy in a much more direct way than a mid level exec within the company can.
Is there evidence that METR had more than nominal impact? I also think the lack of clout will limit his influence in the government. To some government employee, he’s just someone from a random startup they never heard of having outsized influence. Within that agency he’s just a cog in some slow moving behemoth. Within OpenAI he is at least an influential voice in the safety org.
I work at DeepMind and have been influenced by METR. :)
That is great to hear, but I find it probable they’ll be ignored/lobbied against/gamed when it goes against business interests.