My timelines are now roughly similar on the object level (maybe a year slower for 25th and 1-2 years slower for 50th), and procedurally I also now defer a lot to Redwood and METR engineers. More discussion here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines?commentId=hnrfbFCP7Hu6N6Lsp
My timelines are now roughly similar on the object level (maybe a year slower for 25th and 1-2 years slower for 50th), and procedurally I also now defer a lot to Redwood and METR engineers. More discussion here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines?commentId=hnrfbFCP7Hu6N6Lsp